Urbanisation, Water and Food Security in Emerging Selected African and Asian Economies

Abstract

The 21st century has witnessed an unprecedented surge in urbanisation, significantly reshaping global settlement patterns. In many emerging economies across Africa and Asia, however, the pace of urban growth has outstripped the capacity of existing infrastructure and governance systems. Despite growing concern, limited attention has been given to country-specific dynamics linking urbanisation, water security, and food security, as well as their combined and individual effects. This study examines the causal relationships among rapid urban growth, water security, and food security in selected eight (8) emerging Asian and African economies from year 2000 to 2025. It evaluates country-specific and aggregate effects. Methodologically, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator is employed to address heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality approach is used to determine the direction of relationships. Findings reveal heterogeneous dynamics across regions, with urbanisation exerting both positive and negative effects on food security depending on country-specific conditions. Overall, urbanisation has a more adverse effect on food security in African economies than in Asian counterparts. The results underscore the need for integrated land-use and water management policies, context-specific urbanisation strategies, and scaled-up water security interventions to mitigate the negative impacts of rapid urban growth on food security.